{ "metadata": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "dataset_type": "frozen_demo_plus_public_protocol_pending_skeleton/public_safe_demo", "snapshot_date": "2026-06-20", "source": { "type": "zip_demo_rebuilt_plus_public_preregistered_protocol", "description": "Original frozen demo records preserved; additional pending skeleton rows are generated only from the public amanayayatu-tech/gotra PREREGISTERED.md universe and monthly 30-day protocol.", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/tree/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0", "notes": "Public protocol source: data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0; blob_sha=f4faaf0932d301afd2f2c4db05458bda3d77deb9. Skeleton rows are not resolved predictions and do not contain actual_change_pct/error." }, "current_date_for_boundary_review": "2026-06-20", "record_count": 294, "pending_outcome_boundary": { "source_pending_count": 6, "protocol_pending_skeleton_count": 240, "note": "Source-pending demo rows and protocol-derived skeleton rows are displayed as pending/frozen_pending when outcomes are not present in public-safe sources. No actual_change_pct/error values are backfilled." }, "claim_boundary": [ "Research information only", "Not investment advice", "Demo/public-safe dataset", "Not OOS", "Not science/public proof", "Not trading signal" ] }, "records": [ { "prediction_id": "PRED-20260203-TSM-0054", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2026-02-03", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -1.3, "confidence": 0.52, "reasoning": "消费电子需求复苏偏慢,部分成熟制程稼动率不足,地缘风险溢价压制估值。短期我们判断方向中性偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2026-01-29" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2026-01-31" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2026-02-03" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2026-01-31" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-02-04", "actual_change_pct": -1.5, "error": 0.2, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 0, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20260127-3690HK-0053", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2026-01-27", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -3.6, "confidence": 0.58, "reasoning": "即时零售闪购增长强劲，外卖单均盈利环比改善，竞争格局边际趋稳。估值已部分反映悲观预期，超跌反弹概率上升。", "evidence": [ { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2026-01-20" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2026-01-22" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2026-01-20" }, { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2026-01-25" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-02-26", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 1, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20260122-NVDA-0052", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2026-01-22", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -7, "confidence": 0.77, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2026-01-22" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2026-01-15" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-02-21", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 2, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20260111-NVDA-0051", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2026-01-11", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -16.8, "confidence": 0.72, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "英伟达 Q1 财报", "date": "2026-01-07" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2026-01-11" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2026-01-07" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-04-11", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 3, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20260105-AAPL-0050", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2026-01-05", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 14.6, "confidence": 0.52, "reasoning": "中国市场竞争加剧份额承压,AI 功能落地节奏慢于预期,硬件升级吸引力不足。高估值下我们认为短期下行风险更大。", "evidence": [ { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-12-31" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-12-30" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-12-29" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2026-01-02" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-04-05", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 4, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251227-9988HK-0049", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-12-27", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 4.3, "confidence": 0.67, "reasoning": "淘天 GMV 增速企稳,CMR 受货币化率提升带动转正,云业务受 AI 需求拉动重回双位数增长。回购与分红提升股东回报,我们偏乐观。", "evidence": [ { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-12-21" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-12-20" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-01-26", "actual_change_pct": 5.1, "error": 0.8, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "消费复苏", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 5, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251219-MSFT-0048", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-12-19", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -4.5, "confidence": 0.83, "reasoning": "云资本开支高企压制自由现金流,Copilot 付费转化慢于预期,市场对 AI 变现节奏存疑。前期涨幅充分,短期回调风险偏高。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-12-18" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-12-17" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-26", "actual_change_pct": 3.9, "error": 8.4, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 6, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251213-0700HK-0047", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-12-13", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0.8, "confidence": 0.85, "reasoning": "微信生态商业化推进顺利，小游戏与视频号 take rate 提升，金融科技监管边际缓和。财报前我们偏乐观，但反弹幅度受港股流动性约束。", "evidence": [ { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-12-12" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-12-05" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-12-08" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-03-13", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 7, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251206-NVDA-0046", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-12-06", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -3.8, "confidence": 0.6, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-12-04" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-12-06" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-11-28" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-12-05" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-13", "actual_change_pct": -4.8, "error": 1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 8, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-TSM-0239", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 238, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-NVDA-0234", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 233, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-MSFT-0240", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 239, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-AAPL-0238", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 237, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-9988HK-0236", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 235, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-6060HK-0233", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 232, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-3690HK-0232", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 231, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-1810HK-0235", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 234, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-1211HK-0237", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 236, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251201-0700HK-0231", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 230, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251129-1211HK-0045", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-11-29", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -4.7, "confidence": 0.62, "reasoning": "高端品牌仰望与方程豹放量改善产品结构,海外工厂投产打开增长空间,电池外供业务超预期。我们看好中期方向,预期温和上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-11-22" }, { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-11-24" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-29", "actual_change_pct": -7.5, "error": 2.8, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 9, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251120-NVDA-0044", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-11-20", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 1.3, "confidence": 0.74, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-11-13" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-11-13" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-11-14" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-11-12" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-02-18", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 10, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251113-1211HK-0043", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-11-13", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 3, "confidence": 0.73, "reasoning": "高端品牌仰望与方程豹放量改善产品结构,海外工厂投产打开增长空间,电池外供业务超预期。我们看好中期方向,预期温和上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-11-12" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-11-10" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-11-09" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-11-05" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-11-20", "actual_change_pct": 1.1, "error": 1.9, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 11, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251107-6060HK-0042", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-11-07", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -16.3, "confidence": 0.62, "reasoning": "互联网保险渗透率提升,公司线上获客成本优化,承保盈利改善超预期。低基数下业绩弹性较大,我们偏乐观。", "evidence": [ { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-11-02" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-11-01" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2026-02-05", "actual_change_pct": 16.4, "error": 32.7, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 12, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-TSM-0229", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 228, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-NVDA-0224", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 223, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-MSFT-0230", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 229, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-AAPL-0228", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 227, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-9988HK-0226", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 225, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-6060HK-0223", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 222, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-3690HK-0222", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 221, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-1810HK-0225", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 224, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-1211HK-0227", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 226, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251101-0700HK-0221", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 220, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251030-NVDA-0041", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-10-30", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": -1.4, "confidence": 0.75, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-10-23" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-10-23" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-10-24" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": -2.3, "error": 0.9, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 13, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251022-3690HK-0040", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-10-22", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -4, "confidence": 0.72, "reasoning": "即时零售闪购增长强劲，外卖单均盈利环比改善，竞争格局边际趋稳。估值已部分反映悲观预期，超跌反弹概率上升。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-10-14" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-10-15" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-10-22" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-10-17" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-29", "actual_change_pct": 3.5, "error": 7.5, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 14, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251018-6060HK-0039", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-10-18", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 1.5, "confidence": 0.66, "reasoning": "互联网保险渗透率提升,公司线上获客成本优化,承保盈利改善超预期。低基数下业绩弹性较大,我们偏乐观。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-10-15" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-10-15" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-10-17" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-10-16" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-19", "actual_change_pct": 0.5, "error": 1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "贸易摩擦", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 15, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251011-MSFT-0038", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-10-11", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -4.3, "confidence": 0.65, "reasoning": "云资本开支高企压制自由现金流,Copilot 付费转化慢于预期,市场对 AI 变现节奏存疑。前期涨幅充分,短期回调风险偏高。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-10-11" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-10-08" }, { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-10-07" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-18", "actual_change_pct": -4.6, "error": 0.3, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 16, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20251003-1810HK-0037", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-10-03", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -0.7, "confidence": 0.66, "reasoning": "手机出货受行业去库存影响承压,IoT 增长放缓,汽车业务仍处投入期拖累整体利润率。短期估值已计入较多乐观预期,回调风险偏高。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-09-29" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-09-30" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-04", "actual_change_pct": -0.3, "error": 0.4, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 17, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-TSM-0219", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 218, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-NVDA-0214", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 213, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-MSFT-0220", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 219, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-AAPL-0218", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 217, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-9988HK-0216", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 215, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-6060HK-0213", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 212, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-3690HK-0212", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 211, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-1810HK-0215", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 214, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-1211HK-0217", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 216, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20251001-0700HK-0211", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 210, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250925-NVDA-0036", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-09-25", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 3.6, "confidence": 0.62, "reasoning": "数据中心业务持续超预期，Hopper 与 Blackwell 平台需求未见放缓，云厂商资本开支指引上修支撑后续出货。当前估值对应远期 PE 仍处历史中枢，看好财报后的估值修复。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-09-18" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-09-25" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-09-18" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-09-18" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-02", "actual_change_pct": 1.3, "error": 2.3, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 18, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250916-1810HK-0035", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-09-16", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -1.6, "confidence": 0.63, "reasoning": "手机出货受行业去库存影响承压,IoT 增长放缓,汽车业务仍处投入期拖累整体利润率。短期估值已计入较多乐观预期,回调风险偏高。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-09-09" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-09-08" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-09-17", "actual_change_pct": 1.9, "error": 3.5, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 19, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250909-TSM-0034", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-09-09", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -14.5, "confidence": 0.69, "reasoning": "消费电子需求复苏偏慢,部分成熟制程稼动率不足,地缘风险溢价压制估值。短期我们判断方向中性偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-09-04" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-09-01" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-09-03" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-09-04" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-08", "actual_change_pct": -8.5, "error": 6, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 20, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250905-MSFT-0033", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-09-05", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 9, "confidence": 0.69, "reasoning": "云资本开支高企压制自由现金流,Copilot 付费转化慢于预期,市场对 AI 变现节奏存疑。前期涨幅充分,短期回调风险偏高。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-09-01" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-08-28" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-09-04" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-12-04", "actual_change_pct": 6.9, "error": 2.1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 21, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-TSM-0209", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 208, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-NVDA-0204", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 203, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-MSFT-0210", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 209, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-AAPL-0208", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 207, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-9988HK-0206", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 205, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-6060HK-0203", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 202, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-3690HK-0202", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 201, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-1810HK-0205", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 204, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-1211HK-0207", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 206, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250901-0700HK-0201", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 200, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250824-AAPL-0032", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-08-24", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0.6, "confidence": 0.74, "reasoning": "中国市场竞争加剧份额承压,AI 功能落地节奏慢于预期,硬件升级吸引力不足。高估值下我们认为短期下行风险更大。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-08-18" }, { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-08-19" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-08-23" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-08-17" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-11-22", "actual_change_pct": 0.8, "error": 0.2, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 22, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250818-NVDA-0031", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-08-18", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -0.9, "confidence": 0.8, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-08-18" }, { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-08-10" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-08-13" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-08-10" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-19", "actual_change_pct": 0.7, "error": 1.6, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 23, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250811-NVDA-0030", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-08-11", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -1.2, "confidence": 0.6, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-08-09" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-08-09" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-08-10" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-12", "actual_change_pct": -1.8, "error": 0.6, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 24, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250805-1810HK-0029", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-08-05", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 7.6, "confidence": 0.63, "reasoning": "手机出货受行业去库存影响承压,IoT 增长放缓,汽车业务仍处投入期拖累整体利润率。短期估值已计入较多乐观预期,回调风险偏高。", "evidence": [ { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-08-05" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-07-31" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-08-04" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-09-04", "actual_change_pct": 9.7, "error": 2.1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 25, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-TSM-0199", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 198, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-NVDA-0194", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 193, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-MSFT-0200", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 199, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-AAPL-0198", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 197, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-9988HK-0196", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 195, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-6060HK-0193", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 192, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-3690HK-0192", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 191, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-1810HK-0195", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 194, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-1211HK-0197", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 196, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250801-0700HK-0191", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 190, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250729-0700HK-0028", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-07-29", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -7.4, "confidence": 0.79, "reasoning": "游戏业务受新版号与海外大作驱动恢复增长，广告受视频号商业化提速拉动，回购力度维持高位形成估值底。但宏观消费偏弱限制弹性，预期温和上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-07-29" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-07-23" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-07-22" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-08-28", "actual_change_pct": 10.4, "error": 17.8, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 26, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250721-1211HK-0027", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-07-21", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 10.1, "confidence": 0.59, "reasoning": "新能源车销量受价格战影响均价下行,海外出口增长但毛利率承压,行业产能过剩担忧未消。短期我们判断股价偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-07-17" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-07-15" }, { "source": "比亚迪 Q2 财报", "date": "2025-07-14" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-07-17" } ], "prediction_window": "90天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-10-19", "actual_change_pct": -10.5, "error": 20.6, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 27, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250714-NVDA-0026", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-07-14", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 2.3, "confidence": 0.55, "reasoning": "Blackwell 量产爬坡进度好于预期，供应链端确认订单能见度延伸至下半年，毛利率受新品占比提升带动。我们认为短期窗口内仍偏强。", "evidence": [ { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-07-11" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-07-12" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-21", "actual_change_pct": 1.6, "error": 0.7, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 28, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250707-TSM-0025", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-07-07", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -0.8, "confidence": 0.83, "reasoning": "消费电子需求复苏偏慢,部分成熟制程稼动率不足,地缘风险溢价压制估值。短期我们判断方向中性偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-06-29" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-06-29" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-07-05" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-06-30" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-08", "actual_change_pct": -0.7, "error": 0.1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 29, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-TSM-0189", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 188, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-NVDA-0184", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 183, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-MSFT-0190", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 189, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-AAPL-0188", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 187, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250701-AAPL-0024", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 1.4, "confidence": 0.82, "reasoning": "中国市场竞争加剧份额承压,AI 功能落地节奏慢于预期,硬件升级吸引力不足。高估值下我们认为短期下行风险更大。", "evidence": [ { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-07-01" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-06-25" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-02", "actual_change_pct": -1.2, "error": 2.6, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "贸易摩擦", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 30, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-9988HK-0186", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 185, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-6060HK-0183", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 182, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-3690HK-0182", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 181, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-1810HK-0185", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 184, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-1211HK-0187", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 186, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250701-0700HK-0181", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 180, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250622-TSM-0023", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-06-22", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -3.5, "confidence": 0.62, "reasoning": "消费电子需求复苏偏慢,部分成熟制程稼动率不足,地缘风险溢价压制估值。短期我们判断方向中性偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-06-19" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-06-20" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-06-29", "actual_change_pct": -1.5, "error": 2, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 31, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250613-TSM-0022", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-06-13", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 3.5, "confidence": 0.84, "reasoning": "消费电子需求复苏偏慢,部分成熟制程稼动率不足,地缘风险溢价压制估值。短期我们判断方向中性偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-06-09" }, { "source": "台积电 Q3 财报", "date": "2025-06-07" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-06-06" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-06-20", "actual_change_pct": -3.8, "error": 7.3, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 32, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250606-NVDA-0021", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-06-06", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 6.1, "confidence": 0.67, "reasoning": "Blackwell 量产爬坡进度好于预期，供应链端确认订单能见度延伸至下半年，毛利率受新品占比提升带动。我们认为短期窗口内仍偏强。", "evidence": [ { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-06-05" }, { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-06-01" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-06-02" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-05-31" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-06", "actual_change_pct": -7, "error": 13.1, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 33, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-TSM-0179", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 178, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-NVDA-0174", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 173, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-MSFT-0180", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 179, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-AAPL-0178", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 177, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-9988HK-0176", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 175, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-6060HK-0173", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 172, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-3690HK-0172", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 171, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-1810HK-0175", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 174, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-1211HK-0177", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 176, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250601-0700HK-0171", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 170, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250531-NVDA-0020", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-05-31", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 7.7, "confidence": 0.54, "reasoning": "Blackwell 量产爬坡进度好于预期，供应链端确认订单能见度延伸至下半年，毛利率受新品占比提升带动。我们认为短期窗口内仍偏强。", "evidence": [ { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-05-29" }, { "source": "英伟达 Q1 财报", "date": "2025-05-31" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-05-25" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-05-26" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-06-30", "actual_change_pct": 7.4, "error": 0.3, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 34, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250524-9988HK-0019", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-05-24", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 1.7, "confidence": 0.79, "reasoning": "淘天 GMV 增速企稳,CMR 受货币化率提升带动转正,云业务受 AI 需求拉动重回双位数增长。回购与分红提升股东回报,我们偏乐观。", "evidence": [ { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-05-19" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-05-21" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": -2.3, "error": 4, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 35, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250515-1211HK-0018", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-05-15", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 1.7, "confidence": 0.83, "reasoning": "新能源车销量受价格战影响均价下行,海外出口增长但毛利率承压,行业产能过剩担忧未消。短期我们判断股价偏弱。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-05-07" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-05-13" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-05-13" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-05-09" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-16", "actual_change_pct": -2.4, "error": 4.1, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "贸易摩擦", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 36, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250510-TSM-0017", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-05-10", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": -0.2, "confidence": 0.81, "reasoning": "先进制程产能满载,AI 与 HPC 需求驱动 3nm/5nm 出货强劲,代工提价落地改善毛利。我们看好财报后股价上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-05-02" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-05-02" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-05-09" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-05-08" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-06-09", "actual_change_pct": -1.8, "error": 1.6, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 37, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-TSM-0169", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 168, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-NVDA-0164", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 163, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250501-NVDA-0016", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -1.9, "confidence": 0.71, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-04-23" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-04-27" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-04-28" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-02", "actual_change_pct": -2.7, "error": 0.8, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "板块轮动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 38, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-MSFT-0170", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 169, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-AAPL-0168", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 167, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-9988HK-0166", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 165, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-6060HK-0163", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 162, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-3690HK-0162", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 161, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-1810HK-0165", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 164, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-1211HK-0167", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 166, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250501-0700HK-0161", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 160, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250422-9988HK-0015", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-04-22", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 1.9, "confidence": 0.86, "reasoning": "电商竞争依旧激烈,用户时长被分流,云业务利润率受价格战压制。宏观消费疲弱下我们对短期反弹幅度持谨慎态度,判断方向中性。", "evidence": [ { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-04-19" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-04-18" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-04-23", "actual_change_pct": 1.1, "error": 0.8, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 39, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250419-3690HK-0014", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-04-19", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -1.7, "confidence": 0.53, "reasoning": "即时零售闪购增长强劲，外卖单均盈利环比改善，竞争格局边际趋稳。估值已部分反映悲观预期，超跌反弹概率上升。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-04-14" }, { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-04-15" }, { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-04-17" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-04-26", "actual_change_pct": -1.8, "error": 0.1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "流动性宽松", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 40, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250407-NVDA-0013", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-04-07", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -1.4, "confidence": 0.54, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "英伟达 Q2 财报", "date": "2025-04-06" }, { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-04-06" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-04-08", "actual_change_pct": -2, "error": 0.6, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 41, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-TSM-0159", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 158, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-NVDA-0154", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 153, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-MSFT-0160", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 159, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-AAPL-0158", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 157, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-9988HK-0156", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 155, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-6060HK-0153", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 152, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-3690HK-0152", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 151, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250401-3690HK-0012", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 4.1, "confidence": 0.68, "reasoning": "外卖单量受补贴战影响利润承压，到店酒旅竞争加剧，抖音本地生活分流持续。短期利润率指引偏谨慎，我们判断财报后存在下修风险。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-03-28" }, { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-03-24" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-03-30" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-04-08", "actual_change_pct": -2.4, "error": 6.5, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 42, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-1810HK-0155", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 154, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-1211HK-0157", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 156, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250401-0700HK-0151", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 150, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250327-NVDA-0011", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-03-27", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -4, "confidence": 0.56, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-03-24" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-03-20" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-04-26", "actual_change_pct": -1.9, "error": 2.1, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 43, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250316-NVDA-0010", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-03-16", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0.5, "confidence": 0.54, "reasoning": "Blackwell 量产爬坡进度好于预期，供应链端确认订单能见度延伸至下半年，毛利率受新品占比提升带动。我们认为短期窗口内仍偏强。", "evidence": [ { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-03-13" }, { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-03-15" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-03-11" }, { "source": "摩根士丹利研报", "date": "2025-03-10" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-17", "actual_change_pct": -1.3, "error": 1.8, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 44, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250310-TSM-0009", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-03-10", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 5.2, "confidence": 0.75, "reasoning": "先进制程产能满载,AI 与 HPC 需求驱动 3nm/5nm 出货强劲,代工提价落地改善毛利。我们看好财报后股价上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-03-10" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-03-07" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-04-09", "actual_change_pct": -4.7, "error": 9.9, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "生成式AI行情", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 45, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250303-1810HK-0008", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-03-03", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 0.7, "confidence": 0.71, "reasoning": "汽车业务交付量爬坡顺利,SU7 订单超预期带动品牌溢价,手机高端化推进改善毛利。市场对造车盈利拐点预期升温,我们看好估值重估。", "evidence": [ { "source": "Counterpoint 出货数据", "date": "2025-02-23" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-02-27" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-04", "actual_change_pct": -0.9, "error": 1.6, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "消费复苏", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 46, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-TSM-0149", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 148, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-NVDA-0144", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 143, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-MSFT-0150", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 149, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-AAPL-0148", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 147, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-9988HK-0146", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 145, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-6060HK-0143", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 142, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-3690HK-0142", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 141, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-1810HK-0145", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 144, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-1211HK-0147", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 146, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250301-0700HK-0141", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 140, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250225-6060HK-0007", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-02-25", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0.82, "reasoning": "互联网保险渗透率提升,公司线上获客成本优化,承保盈利改善超预期。低基数下业绩弹性较大,我们偏乐观。", "evidence": [ { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-02-20" }, { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-02-17" }, { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-02-20" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-02-25" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-26", "actual_change_pct": 1.5, "error": 1.5, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "汇率波动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 47, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250215-NVDA-0006", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-02-15", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -2.7, "confidence": 0.79, "reasoning": "市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性的担忧升温，部分超大规模云厂商释放支出节奏放缓信号，叠加前期涨幅过大获利盘集中，短期回调风险高于上行空间。", "evidence": [ { "source": "渠道调研", "date": "2025-02-15" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-02-07" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-02-10" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-22", "actual_change_pct": -2.1, "error": 0.6, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 48, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250210-1211HK-0005", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-02-10", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 1.8, "confidence": 0.84, "reasoning": "高端品牌仰望与方程豹放量改善产品结构,海外工厂投产打开增长空间,电池外供业务超预期。我们看好中期方向,预期温和上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-02-07" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-02-04" }, { "source": "管理层电话会", "date": "2025-02-05" }, { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-02-08" } ], "prediction_window": "1天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-11", "actual_change_pct": 2.1, "error": 0.3, "direction_correct": true, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 49, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250202-AAPL-0004", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-02-02", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 2.2, "confidence": 0.59, "reasoning": "iPhone 换机周期受 AI 功能驱动启动,服务业务维持双位数增长,大中华区降幅收窄。但硬件创新边际减弱,我们判断温和上行。", "evidence": [ { "source": "财新报道", "date": "2025-01-27" }, { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-01-25" }, { "source": "彭博社报道", "date": "2025-01-28" }, { "source": "海关出口数据", "date": "2025-01-30" } ], "prediction_window": "7天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-09", "actual_change_pct": -2.4, "error": 4.6, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "汇率波动", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 50, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-TSM-0139", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 138, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-NVDA-0134", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 133, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-MSFT-0140", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 139, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-AAPL-0138", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 137, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-9988HK-0136", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 135, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-6060HK-0133", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 132, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-3690HK-0132", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 131, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-1810HK-0135", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 134, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-1211HK-0137", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 136, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250201-0700HK-0131", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-03-03", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 130, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250126-9988HK-0003", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-01-26", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -6.2, "confidence": 0.77, "reasoning": "电商竞争依旧激烈,用户时长被分流,云业务利润率受价格战压制。宏观消费疲弱下我们对短期反弹幅度持谨慎态度,判断方向中性。", "evidence": [ { "source": "美联储议息纪要", "date": "2025-01-25" }, { "source": "高盛行业研报", "date": "2025-01-23" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-01-25" }, { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-01-25" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-25", "actual_change_pct": 5.1, "error": 11.3, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "财报季", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 51, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250121-AAPL-0002", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-01-21", "direction": "down", "expected_change_pct": -7.9, "confidence": 0.52, "reasoning": "中国市场竞争加剧份额承压,AI 功能落地节奏慢于预期,硬件升级吸引力不足。高估值下我们认为短期下行风险更大。", "evidence": [ { "source": "公司业绩说明会纪要", "date": "2025-01-16" }, { "source": "公司公告", "date": "2025-01-20" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-20", "actual_change_pct": 6.1, "error": 14, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 52, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PRED-20250110-NVDA-0001", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-01-10", "direction": "up", "expected_change_pct": 3.4, "confidence": 0.57, "reasoning": "Blackwell 量产爬坡进度好于预期，供应链端确认订单能见度延伸至下半年，毛利率受新品占比提升带动。我们认为短期窗口内仍偏强。", "evidence": [ { "source": "英伟达 Q2 财报", "date": "2025-01-07" }, { "source": "SemiAnalysis 供应链跟踪", "date": "2025-01-02" }, { "source": "路透社报道", "date": "2025-01-02" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-02-09", "actual_change_pct": -3.4, "error": 6.8, "direction_correct": false, "style_window": "加息周期", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-demo-2026-02-10", "source": "zip_demo_rebuilt_public_safe_dataset", "source_record_index": 53, "immutable_demo_snapshot": true } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-TSM-0129", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 128, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-NVDA-0124", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 123, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-MSFT-0130", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 129, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-AAPL-0128", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 127, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-9988HK-0126", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 125, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-6060HK-0123", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 122, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-3690HK-0122", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 121, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-1810HK-0125", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 124, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-1211HK-0127", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 126, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20250101-0700HK-0121", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2025-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2025-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "protocol monthly 30-day window", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 120, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-TSM-0119", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 118, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-NVDA-0114", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 113, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-MSFT-0120", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 119, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-AAPL-0118", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 117, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-9988HK-0116", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 115, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-6060HK-0113", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 112, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-3690HK-0112", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 111, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-1810HK-0115", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 114, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-1211HK-0117", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 116, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241201-0700HK-0111", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-12-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 110, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-TSM-0109", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 108, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-NVDA-0104", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 103, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-MSFT-0110", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 109, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-AAPL-0108", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 107, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-9988HK-0106", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 105, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-6060HK-0103", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 102, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-3690HK-0102", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 101, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-1810HK-0105", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 104, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-1211HK-0107", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 106, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241101-0700HK-0101", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-11-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-12-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 100, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-TSM-0099", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 98, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-NVDA-0094", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 93, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-MSFT-0100", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 99, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-AAPL-0098", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 97, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-9988HK-0096", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 95, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-6060HK-0093", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 92, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-3690HK-0092", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 91, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-1810HK-0095", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 94, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-1211HK-0097", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 96, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20241001-0700HK-0091", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-10-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 90, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-TSM-0089", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 88, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-NVDA-0084", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 83, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-MSFT-0090", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 89, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-AAPL-0088", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 87, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-9988HK-0086", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 85, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-6060HK-0083", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 82, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-3690HK-0082", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 81, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-1810HK-0085", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 84, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-1211HK-0087", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 86, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240901-0700HK-0081", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-09-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-10-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 80, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-TSM-0079", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 78, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-NVDA-0074", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 73, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-MSFT-0080", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 79, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-AAPL-0078", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 77, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-9988HK-0076", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 75, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-6060HK-0073", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 72, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-3690HK-0072", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 71, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-1810HK-0075", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 74, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-1211HK-0077", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 76, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240801-0700HK-0071", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-08-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-08-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 70, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-TSM-0069", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 68, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-NVDA-0064", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 63, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-MSFT-0070", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 69, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-AAPL-0068", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 67, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-9988HK-0066", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 65, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-6060HK-0063", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 62, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-3690HK-0062", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 61, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-1810HK-0065", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 64, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-1211HK-0067", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 66, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240701-0700HK-0061", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-07-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 60, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-TSM-0059", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 58, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-NVDA-0054", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 53, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-MSFT-0060", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 59, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-AAPL-0058", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 57, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-9988HK-0056", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 55, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-6060HK-0053", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 52, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-3690HK-0052", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 51, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-1810HK-0055", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 54, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-1211HK-0057", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 56, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240601-0700HK-0051", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-06-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-07-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 50, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-TSM-0049", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 48, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-NVDA-0044", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 43, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-MSFT-0050", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 49, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-AAPL-0048", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 47, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-9988HK-0046", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 45, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-6060HK-0043", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 42, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-3690HK-0042", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 41, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-1810HK-0045", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 44, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-1211HK-0047", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 46, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240501-0700HK-0041", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-05-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 40, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-TSM-0039", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 38, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-NVDA-0034", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 33, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-MSFT-0040", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 39, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-AAPL-0038", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 37, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-9988HK-0036", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 35, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-6060HK-0033", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 32, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-3690HK-0032", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 31, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-1810HK-0035", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 34, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-1211HK-0037", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 36, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240401-0700HK-0031", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-04-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-05-01", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 30, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-TSM-0029", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 28, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-NVDA-0024", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 23, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-MSFT-0030", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 29, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-AAPL-0028", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 27, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-9988HK-0026", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 25, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-6060HK-0023", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 22, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-3690HK-0022", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 21, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-1810HK-0025", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 24, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-1211HK-0027", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 26, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240301-0700HK-0021", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-03-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 20, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-TSM-0019", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 18, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-NVDA-0014", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 13, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-MSFT-0020", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 19, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-AAPL-0018", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 17, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-9988HK-0016", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 15, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-6060HK-0013", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 12, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-3690HK-0012", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 11, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-1810HK-0015", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 14, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-1211HK-0017", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 16, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240201-0700HK-0011", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-02-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-03-02", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 10, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-TSM-0009", "ticker": "TSM", "company": "台积电", "sector": "晶圆代工", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 8, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-NVDA-0004", "ticker": "NVDA", "company": "英伟达", "sector": "半导体/AI算力", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 3, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-MSFT-0010", "ticker": "MSFT", "company": "微软", "sector": "软件/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 9, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-AAPL-0008", "ticker": "AAPL", "company": "苹果", "sector": "消费电子", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 7, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-9988HK-0006", "ticker": "9988.HK", "company": "阿里巴巴", "sector": "电商/云计算", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 5, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-6060HK-0003", "ticker": "6060.HK", "company": "众安在线", "sector": "互联网保险", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 2, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-3690HK-0002", "ticker": "3690.HK", "company": "美团", "sector": "本地生活/外卖", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 1, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-1810HK-0005", "ticker": "1810.HK", "company": "小米集团", "sector": "消费电子/汽车", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 4, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-1211HK-0007", "ticker": "1211.HK", "company": "比亚迪", "sector": "新能源汽车", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 6, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } }, { "prediction_id": "PROTO-20240101-0700HK-0001", "ticker": "0700.HK", "company": "腾讯控股", "sector": "互联网/社交", "decision_date": "2024-01-01", "direction": "neutral", "expected_change_pct": 0, "confidence": 0, "reasoning": "Protocol-derived pending skeleton generated from public PREREGISTERED.md. It represents a monthly 30-day ledger slot from the public protocol, not a published model prediction; no public-safe outcome is available, so actual_change_pct and error stay null.", "evidence": [ { "source": "amanayayatu-tech/gotra/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md@d42492c", "date": "2026-06-14" } ], "prediction_window": "30天", "outcome_availability_date": "2024-01-31", "actual_change_pct": null, "error": null, "direction_correct": "pending", "style_window": "Generative AI regime", "provenance": { "dataset_id": "gotra-public-ledger-phase5-public-safe-2026-06-20", "source": "public_preregistered_protocol_derived_pending_skeleton", "source_url_or_id": "https://github.com/amanayayatu-tech/gotra/blob/d42492cd9d1016aaf87581765a2c8d119776c0e0/data/backtest/PREREGISTERED.md", "source_record_index": 0, "immutable_demo_snapshot": false, "notes": "Generated only from public protocol universe/monthly-window metadata. No actual outcome, model output, provider raw response, local run artifact, or private data was used." } } ] }