Prediction Detail: PRED-20250909-TSM-0034
GOTRA Public Ledger is an auditable AI stock-research public ledger. It records public-safe demo predictions, resolved outcomes, visible errors, and research boundaries. It is research information only, not investment advice, not a trading signal, and not performance proof.
GOTRA Public Ledger 是一个可审计的 AI 股票研究公开预测账本，展示 public-safe demo 预测记录、已结算结果、公开错误和研究边界。它不是投资建议、不是交易信号、不是业绩证明。
GOTRA Public Ledger provides public-safe research information only. It is not investment advice, not a trading signal, not live trading, not performance proof, and not a guarantee of future outcomes.
GOTRA Public Ledger 仅提供公开安全的研究信息。它不是投资建议、不是交易信号、不是实时交易、不是业绩证明，也不保证未来结果。
Prediction fields
| field | value |
|---|---|
| prediction_id | PRED-20250909-TSM-0034 |
| ticker | TSM |
| company | 台积电 |
| sector | 晶圆代工 |
| prediction_date | 2025-09-09 |
| horizon | 90天 |
| direction | down |
| expected_change_pct | -14.5 |
| confidence | 0.69 |
| status | resolved |
| actual_change_pct | -8.5 |
| error | 6 |
| evidence_count | 4 |
Evidence summary
消费电子需求复苏偏慢,部分成熟制程稼动率不足,地缘风险溢价压制估值
| source | date |
|---|---|
| 公司业绩说明会纪要 | 2025-09-04 |
| 管理层电话会 | 2025-09-01 |
| Counterpoint 出货数据 | 2025-09-03 |
| 美联储议息纪要 | 2025-09-04 |
Boundary statement
GOTRA Public Ledger provides public-safe research information only. It is not investment advice, not a trading signal, not live trading, not performance proof, and not a guarantee of future outcomes.